Inside the Portfolio: Updates from our Swing Trading Desk
16 Dec 2024 - Insights, adjustments, and forecasts about our latest swing trades
Position Updates:
The Walt Disney Company (DIS): Position successfully closed with a profitable outcome. Strategic reallocation of capital initiated to pursue more compelling opportunities identified through our analytical framework.
New Positions and Subscriber Insights:
Our systematic approach has yielded positive results with two high-conviction opportunities materializing from our weekly watchlist screening process. This validates our rigorous selection methodology and demonstrates the tangible value our watchlist provides to subscribers.
Both entry points and specific tickers for these new positions were communicated in real time to our paid subscribers through our premium alert system via chat, ensuring timely execution opportunities.
1. Celsius Holdings Inc (CELH)
Celsius Holdings, Inc. develops, processes, markets, distributes and sells functional drinks and liquid supplements in North America, Europe, Asia, and internationally. It offers various carbonated and non-carbonated functional energy drinks under the CELSIUS Originals name; dietary supplements in carbonated flavors under the CELSIUS HEAT name; and branched-chain amino acids functional energy drink that fuels muscle recovery under the CELSIUS BCCA+ENERGY name.
Fundamental Analysis
Celsius Holdings' financial position shows temporary headwinds due to PepsiCo's inventory management, impacting near-term sales. However, excluding these transitional factors, the underlying business fundamentals remain strong with continued category outperformance and expanding market presence. The current situation presents a potential entry opportunity, as resolution of inventory issues and category growth recovery could drive significant stock appreciation.
Key Catalysts:
Strategic Acquisition of Big Beverages Contract Manufacturing
PepsiCo distribution partnership optimization nearing completion
Strong growth in non-PepsiCo channels
Investment in marketing and AI capabilities
Potential increased stake from PepsiCo
Market Dynamics: The energy drink sector maintains robust growth potential, with CELH positioned as a leading better-for-you alternative. While the broader category experiences a temporary slowdown, CELH's operational improvements and strategic partnerships make it well-positioned for recovery. The company's focus on production capacity expansion and distribution optimization differentiates it from competitors.
Challenges:
Short-term sales pressure from PepsiCo inventory management
Q4 potential negative impact of ~$15M
Dependence on overall category growth recovery
Competitive pressure in the energy drink space
Need for continued marketing investment to maintain brand momentum
⚡ AI-optimized, human-verified: Our expert team carefully selected Premium market intelligence from Finchat's data. Explore now →
Technical Analysis
Entry Point: We initiated our position when the stock broke above the down trendline on the daily chart. It was an important level touched several times in the last three months.
Support and Resistance Levels: Support is currently established at $27.80 on the daily chart. The first resistance level is at 31.50 on the daily, then 35.00
Additional Notes: It’s both a Swing but also a Long Term Play if you have patience, the stock in our opinion is undervalued.
Entry Day: 09 December
Price: $29.13
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