Golden Bear Capital · Independent equity market research
We don't talk markets. We trade them.
Analysis, trading and portfolio management from people risking their own capital. Ten names every Sunday, deep research when a company earns it, live positions in the chat. And the tools to do it yourself: TradeDeck, the courses, an hour one-on-one when you need it.
MarketIndex first, then the name. When the broad market is falling, almost no sector holds and almost no stock makes a good trade. Exceptions exist, but they are rare and expensive to go hunting for. So we start from above: how the indices are behaving, where money is rotating between sectors, which market caps are holding up. Only once that picture is clear do we come down to the single name. Doing it the other way round, falling for a stock and then looking for a market that agrees with you, is the quickest way to lose money on excellent analysis.
CatalystWhy now. An idea built in the abstract gets expensive, because you grow attached to it. We start from the event that moved the price: an earnings print, a contract, a change at the top, a sector rotating. If the catalyst survives a serious reading, the idea is worth having. If the price moved and nobody can say why, volume tells you the rest: thin trade means nobody is behind it, and that move goes back where it came from.
ProbabilityHow often it has paid. Nobody knows what the market does on Monday morning, and we are openly suspicious of anyone claiming otherwise. What can be measured is something else: how often a setup has worked, what it returned when it worked and what it cost on the occasions it failed. If that arithmetic doesn't hold, the setup doesn't reach the watchlist, however good the story around it.
ExitWritten first. The level at which we admit we were wrong gets set while the position is still a hypothesis and the head is clear, not at three in the afternoon with the chart falling. It is the dullest part of this job and the only one holding everything else up.
Substack is the home of our publication: articles, chat and subscriber research. The hub archive collects the articles and their Italian translations, so you can explore our work from here too.
Part of it goes out free and will keep going out free. The operational part, meaning the full watchlist, the levels and how positions get handled, is for subscribers. Not to manufacture scarcity: it costs work, and the people paying for it deserve not to share it with the entire market.
RadarWall Street Radar. Over the weekend we run five thousand names. Ten survive: the ones with the best risk-to-reward, picked on technicals and fundamentals together rather than one of the two for convenience. Coverage doesn't stop during the week: it carries on inside TradeDeck.WEEKLY
ChatThe Chat. Substack chat, in real time, subscribers only. We post what we are buying and what we are selling while we do it: entry, size, exit. Including when it ends badly.REAL TIME
MemoGBC Raw Memo. Short notes, written on the spot. What we think before it has been tidied up.SHORT
AnalysisEquity X-Ray. The long pieces. One name at a time, taken apart from the catalyst down to the risk structure, with the level at which the idea would be wrong written down in black and white.LONG-FORM
SupportWe answer by email within 24 hours, for every member. No ticket queue, no premium tier: a person reads it.24H
FreeOne-off articles and the first part of the weekly watchlist. No email required to read them.
PaidThe complete watchlist, Raw Memos, Chat, Equity X-Rays and support. €39 monthly or €299 annually, including TradeDeck Pro. Subscription and cancellation on Substack.
TradeDeck exists because we needed it. The tools out there answer how much a stock has risen very well, and who is buying it right now and why very badly. We needed the second question, so we built the thing that answers it.
The Radar is a weekend snapshot. TradeDeck keeps that snapshot current: the same criteria, applied to today's market, every day, without waiting for Saturday.
Capital FlowWhere money moves across sectors, indices and market caps.
Market QualityA single market health score, with the history of recent sessions.
GappersGapping names with AI analysis of the catalyst, the evidence and the risks.
MegatrendsStructural themes and the names that genuinely carry them.
We teach the method we use every week with our own money. No textbook theory: the actual process, explained in the order we run it, so you can repeat it without us.
SwingSwing Trading. A PDF course on market context, momentum and risk management. Includes a final clarification call. In preparation.
GrowthGrowth Investing. A PDF course on companies, business models and growth prospects. Includes a final clarification call. In preparation.
TC2000Complete setup. Workspace, Market Watch and scanners to import into TC2000, with a PDF guide and email support.
1:1One session, one clear topic. 55 minutes on your process, tools or a business problem. Choose your topic and receive a written summary.
2008 was the worst year to start anything in Italy. We started anyway. An e-commerce company, with no collateral to show a bank and no surname that opened doors. The no came politely at first, then they stopped replying at all. Suppliers vanished after the first order. Some nights there was just the account balance on the screen and the question anyone who has built something knows: what if I lose it all?
We kept going. Not because we knew how it would end, nobody knows that. We kept going because the alternative was asking permission, and permission is the leash that world keeps you on. The company grew to seven-figure revenue, and one day we signed the papers and sold it.
We tell this story for one reason. Everything we publish here was born there: when the money on the table is yours, method stops being an opinion. It becomes what lets you sleep.
If you trade your own account, you already know this story. The trade is different, the night is the same.
Today Golden Bear Capital runs on three things: a research subscription, a piece of software and the courses. We manage nobody else's money. No broker pays us and nobody hands us products to place. If a name looks like a bad idea we write that it is a bad idea, and there is no one to call first.
We don't make characters of ourselves. In this industry reputation gets built around the face instead of the work, and the result is profiles with a great many followers and very few verifiable positions. We would rather the judgement came from the archive, which stays public and readable backwards for as long as you like. Anyone who buys something, though, knows exactly who they are dealing with: on the other side of the email there is a first name and a surname, not a handle. To our customers we are not anonymous. We are anonymous to passers-by.
Wall Street built a statue of the bull. The bull is what this industry sells: the run, the rally, the account that grows on its own. We put the bear in our name instead, the animal this business prefers not to mention, the one that shows up when the plan was hope. We keep it there so we never trade as if it couldn't walk in. And it's golden because the bear is what taught us the job: the years that made us were the years it was in the room. Not a bearish stance. A reminder that the market owes us nothing and deserves respect even in the weeks when it's proving us right. Especially in those.
If you have a specific problem and you want to put it on a table in a session, that happens here.
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QUESTIONS
4 entries
Advice?No, and that is not boilerplate. We are not licensed financial advisers. We have technical-analysis qualifications through SIAT (the Italian Society of Technical Analysis) and IFTA (the International Federation of Technical Analysts): we know how to read a chart and examine a financial instrument. Years as CEOs taught us to look inside the businesses behind the tickers, too. But we do not know your situation and will never tell you what to buy. Everything we publish is for information and education: we show what we do and why. What you do with it is your decision, and the risk is yours.
How it fitsSubstack carries our research, articles, portfolio and subscriber chat. TradeDeck puts market data and analysis tools in your hands. The courses explain the method; a 1:1 call tackles a specific problem. Browse the Shop to find your starting point. A paid Substack subscription includes TradeDeck Pro, activated by email; you can subscribe to TradeDeck separately, too.
From scratchRead the free part for a few weeks. If the way we think doesn't resemble yours, you find that out without having spent anything, which strikes us as the right way to start.
CancellingAny time, from your Substack account. You don't go through us, you don't write to anyone and you don't explain why.
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CONTACT
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Something broken? Tell us off. A useful criticism? We love the kind that makes our research, services or products better. A partnership idea? Now you have our attention. We read everything and reply within 24 hours, always.
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