🚀 Wall Street Radar: Stocks to Watch Next Week
💼 Volume 91
We Knew Better. We Did It Anyway.
Last week, we preached patience. This week, we ignored our own advice, and the market collected.
The tape was brutal and a good deal more volatile than we expected walking in. The Nasdaq put up its worst week in over a year, down more than four percent, with several red sessions stacked into Friday’s close. The S&P 500 had its ugliest week since early June and closed back under its 50-day moving average, the kind of level that quietly reshapes how the next few weeks trade. The only major index left standing was the Dow, up a fraction on the week, carried by exactly the slow defensive names everyone wrote off in the spring.
Now the part we’ll own.
Coming off a week where we’d started giving back some of our lead over the Nasdaq, we made a decision. We pushed the accelerator. Genius move!
Monday set the trap cleanly.
The market poked above the recent highs and looked, for a few hours, like it finally wanted to break out. Then it rejected them outright. The next session gapped down hard, and the semis led the bleeding. The Semiconductor Index had its worst run in over a year, as the whole AI complex unwound on a report that OpenAI might push its IPO into next year. A Fed still flirting with a hike, a wobble in the Iran ceasefire late in the week, quarter-end rebalancing sloshing money around. Anything crowded got sold.
Not the week to be reaching for size.
Most of the time, the right move when you’re slightly behind is the boring one. Protect what you’ve built, go tactically near full cash, and let the market show its hand before you commit a dollar. We know this. We’ve known it for years. And we still let the anxiety of trailing the index crawl into our heads. Beating the benchmark every year is the job, and we hold ourselves to it without excuses. But we’re human, and enough time in the trenches teaches you that the emotions never actually leave. They just go quiet and wait for the worst possible moment.
Putting the portfolio and the numbers out in public keeps us disciplined. It also leaves the door cracked for the occasional emotional spike nobody asked for, usually right when the scoreboard is in plain view. This was one of those weeks.
The rotation underneath the headline was loud. Money poured into the traditionally defensive corners. Healthcare had its best week since 2022, up more than seven percent. Real estate and utilities each picked up roughly three to four. Six of the eleven S&P sectors actually closed green, which tells you the damage was concentrated in tech, not spread across the whole market. Those defensive corners are the ones worth watching while tech and everything AI-adjacent catches its breath.
Which brings us to the trade we’re least proud of.
Flex Ltd (FLEX) sits right next to the research we’ve been buried in lately, and to the piece we just published. We liked the setup. We bought it on Wednesday, a healthy position with the risk kept tight, stop parked just beneath support. By the next morning, we were sitting in clean profit on a gap up. It felt right.
Two days later, the whole position was gone. Half sold at breakeven, the other half taken out at the original stop. FLEX is high-beta and chip-adjacent, and the moment the semis rolled, it rolled right alongside them. That is the entire market this week, compressed into one trade.
Difficult. Volatile. Choppy. A tape that punishes size and pays for patience, where the honest answer is usually to do less, or nothing at all, until the market actually commits to a direction worth trading.
So we go back to the patient, and a little bored. It pays better, and we know it.
Here’s a look at this week’s market health, with a breakdown of index and sector performance.
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📈 Free Setup: Make It Count
PGY: Pagaya Technologies Ltd ⚠️
What they do: An AI-powered credit underwriting platform
Why watch? Five consecutive quarters of GAAP profitability are a hard fact to argue with, yet the short interest in Pagaya sits above 15%. That disconnect between the operating reality and the market’s positioning is exactly the kind of setup worth paying attention to.
To understand what Pagaya actually does, it helps to know what traditional credit underwriting misses. Most lenders still rely heavily on FICO scores and a handful of standard financial variables to decide who gets a loan and at what rate. Pagaya’s AI model analyzes a much broader set of signals in real time, making instant creditworthiness decisions that go well beyond what a credit score captures. The company does not originate loans itself. It embeds its decision engine into a partner’s existing origination flow so that every applicant the partner sees gets run through Pagaya’s model first. The partner gets better approval rates and lower default risk. Pagaya earns a fee.
Q1 2026 results came in slightly below revenue expectations, but the composition of the beat and miss matters more than the headline. EPS of $0.73 beat by $0.17, and revenue still grew 9.64% year over year. For a company that was not profitable until 2025, that trajectory is remarkable.
The partner network is expanding rapidly: Upstart, GLS, Sezzle, and Upgrade’s Flex Pay product were all onboarded in the last 6-12 months, bringing the total to five new partners in that window. Additional regional banks are reportedly in the queue. Each new partner that integrates Pagaya’s underwriting engine deepens the moat because switching out an AI credit model that is embedded at the origination layer is operationally painful and carries real default-rate risk if done carelessly.
The Sezzle partnership is worth understanding specifically. Sezzle’s core product is a pay-in-four installment offering, which by its nature caps the purchase size it can support. By connecting to Pagaya’s underwriting infrastructure, Sezzle can now extend financing on significantly larger purchases, which expands its addressable market without taking on additional credit risk it cannot price properly.
Technical Outlook: The stock is approaching the $16.00 level again, which has acted as major monthly resistance throughout 2024. The pattern that has formed since mid-April is a long, drawn-out handle on what reads as a cup-and-handle base. These extended handles can be frustrating, but they tend to build into cleaner breakouts because weak holders gradually exit during the consolidation period. A break above $16.00 on meaningful volume would be a significant technical event for this name and could mark the beginning of a genuine Stage 2 uptrend.
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