🚀 Wall Street Radar: Stocks to Watch Next Week
💼 Volume 82
Missing the Rally, Keeping the Edge
There are phases in the market where doing the right thing doesn’t just feel uncomfortable; it actively makes you look like you’re getting it wrong, and this is exactly one of those moments.
When a portfolio manager is focused on protecting profits, staying on the defensive side, and doing everything possible to minimize drawdowns, the perception of that approach becomes entirely dependent on what the market decides to do next. When things break down and indices roll over, that discipline looks sharp, almost visionary, but when the market turns around and starts pushing higher aggressively, especially without structure, the same approach suddenly looks slow, hesitant, even incompetent.
Over the past two weeks, we’ve clearly been on that side of the trade.
We moved from a market environment that looked extremely fragile, with a very real risk of a deeper correction driven by negative headlines and ongoing geopolitical tensions, into a rally that very few could have anticipated in both speed and magnitude, with the Nasdaq gaining roughly 16% in the span of just two weeks, which is the kind of move that doesn’t just catch you off guard, it forces you to constantly question whether you’re reading the market correctly at all.
And when you’re positioned defensively during a move like this, the outcome is almost inevitable.
Over the last 30 days, we’ve underperformed the indices by more than 6%, and while there’s no point in trying to sugarcoat it, because we feel that gap and we’re fully aware of it, there’s also a level of acceptance that comes with understanding that our framework simply wouldn’t allow us to behave differently in a context like this.
How do you build meaningful positions when the market is moving this fast, with this level of volatility, without any real pause, without consolidation, without those moments where price tightens, and risk can actually be defined? From our perspective, you don’t, or at the very least, you don’t do it with any meaningful size, because stepping in aggressively in these conditions isn’t a calculated decision; it’s a bet.
And that’s not what we do.
Capital protection remains the priority, even when it comes at the cost of underperformance, because while lagging the indices is frustrating and, at times, uncomfortable, exposing the portfolio to uncontrolled downside is something we’re simply not willing to accept.
At the same time, when we zoom out slightly, this type of move doesn’t feel particularly sustainable, especially considering how quickly it developed and how little structure has been built along the way, which makes it reasonable to expect some form of reset, whether that comes in the form of a gap down or a broader pullback over the next couple of weeks.
Paradoxically, that would be exactly what we need.
A period of consolidation would allow leaders to cool off, build proper bases, and create those cleaner, more defined setups where risk is contained and positioning can be scaled with more conviction, which is where our approach tends to perform at its best.
Despite the overall environment, we did open two new positions this week, and so far they are behaving well, which at the very least confirms that our selection process is still aligned with what the market is rewarding, even if our overall exposure remains limited for now.
As always, every phase of the market, regardless of how frustrating or uncomfortable it might feel in real time, carries something valuable in terms of feedback, and the process remains the same: observe, adapt, refine, and make sure that when conditions finally align, we are ready to act with clarity and size.
Here’s a look at this week’s market health, with a breakdown of index and sector performance.
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📈 Free Setup: Make It Count
CRDO: Credo Technology Group Holding Ltd ⚠️
What they do: A semiconductor company specializing in high-speed connectivity solutions
Why watch? Credo has been one of the standout performers in the semiconductor space over the past several weeks, and the reasons go well beyond simple momentum. The company sits at the intersection of two powerful forces: relentless AI infrastructure spending and the increasingly complex networking demands of next-generation data centers.
A common misconception about Credo is that it operates in a narrow niche. In reality, the company has been quietly building a comprehensive optical networking portfolio. It never fully exited the optical market, continuing to sell digital signal processors (DSPs, the chips that manage how data is encoded and transmitted over optical fiber) to other component manufacturers. Its recently launched Bluebird and Cardinal DSPs are designed for upcoming 1.6 terabit-per-second optical transceivers, which represent the next frontier in data center bandwidth.
But Credo didn’t stop at selling components to other companies. It made the strategic decision to design and sell its own complete transceivers, launching its first product in March using its proprietary Robin DSP at 800G transmission speeds. A 1.6T version is widely expected to follow. For context, higher transmission speeds mean more data can move through a single connection, which is critical as AI workloads generate enormous volumes of data that must travel between servers at extraordinary speeds.
The acquisition of DustPhotonics for approximately $750 million in cash, $550 million in stock, and contingent milestones adds another dimension to this story. DustPhotonics specializes in silicon photonics: a technology that integrates optical components directly onto silicon chips, enabling faster and more energy-efficient data transmission. This acquisition positions Credo for the transition to co-packaged optics (CPO), a next-generation architecture where optical components are integrated directly alongside processors rather than connected through cables. Getting ahead of this shift could prove enormously valuable as data centers evolve.
Technical Outlook: The stock has delivered a near-100% gain in roughly two weeks, an extraordinary move that now requires patience. The consolidation is still in its early stages, just two days in, and the stock needs more time to digest those gains before the next leg can develop sustainably. The 10-day exponential moving average has been the stock’s preferred support level throughout this run, and a pullback to that level ( or to the 20-day EMA) would create a far more attractive entry point than chasing the current price. The $165.00 level represents the key threshold for the next advance. This is a stock worth monitoring closely, but the best opportunity will likely come on a controlled pullback rather than at current levels.
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