đ Wall Street Radar: Stocks to Watch Next Week
đź Volume 76
The call came through at 3:47 AM London time. Not a phone call, those donât matter anymore. A Bloomberg terminal alert, the kind that makes your stomach drop before your brain catches up. Tehran. Khamenei. Dead. Coordinated strikes. Forty days of mourning were declared before the smoke cleared.
Iâve been in this business long enough to know that the first casualty of war isnât truth: itâs sleep. The second is certainty. By the time most people were pouring their morning coffee, oil futures had already rewritten the dayâs script.
Brent crude didnât wait for confirmation. It never does.
Hereâs what they wonât show you in the sanitized market commentary: while state broadcasters in Tehran were announcing two hundred casualties, traders in Singapore were already repositioning. Not because theyâre callous (though some are) but because capital doesnât observe moments of silence. It moves in the dark, repricing risk while the rest of us are still trying to figure out what just happened.
When the Door Was Open
I remember the first time I understood this, really understood it.
It was 2011, watching screens flicker with news from Tripoli while my colleague (a guy whoâd spent three years building a North Africa energy book) sat frozen at his desk. His entire thesis was evaporating in real time, and all he could do was watch the numbers bleed. Thatâs the thing about geopolitical events: they donât care about your models. They donât care about your conviction. They just are.
Iran has been in a ghost position for decades. A country that exists in the market imagination as pure potential energyâmassive reserves, educated population, strategic geographyâall of it locked behind a door nobody could quite figure out how to open. Every few years, someone would pitch the âIran normalization tradeâ with the enthusiasm of a prospector whoâd just found color in the pan.
And every time, the door stayed shut.
The Shahâs Iran, Mohammad Reza Pahlaviâs version, was the last time the door swung wide. Rapid industrialization, women in universities, a modernization campaign that looked, from a distance, like progress on fast-forward. But progress built on a foundation of political concrete has a way of cracking. Dissent didnât disappear; it went underground, gathering pressure like water behind a dam. When Khomeini returned from exile in 1979, that dam didnât just break, and it obliterated the landscape.
What followed was forty-five years of a different kind of calculus. The Islamic Republic became a study in how ideology and economics can coexist in permanent tension. By late 2025, the toman was trading at 140,000 to the dollar: not a currency, really, but a slow-motion confession of structural failure. For anyone trying to model Iranian risk, that number told you everything: this was a system running on fumes and willpower.
Now, in the wreckage of Saturday morning, a different name is circulating. Reza Pahlavi. The son. The exile. The guy whoâs been waiting in the wings for longer than most traders have been alive. Some protesters have been waving the old Lion and Sun flag, the pre-revolutionary symbol that carries the weight of a different national memory. Whether thatâs nostalgia or a genuine appetite for restoration is impossible to say from here.
Revolutions are easy to start. Building what comes after, thatâs the hard part. And markets, for all their supposed efficiency, are terrible at pricing the difference between collapse and renewal. They can tell you what just broke. They canât tell you what might grow in its place.
The Cost of Rationed Possibility
Iâm writing this from a European perspective, which means I carry my own biases. I grew up in a world where institutions bend but rarely shatter, where change happens through negotiation and incremental reform. That lens makes it hard to fully grasp what it means to live for decades under a system that rations not just goods, but possibility itself. The economic cost of that isnât just measurable in currency depreciation or capital flight: itâs in the ideas never pursued, the businesses never started, the human potential that atrophies in the absence of oxygen.
If Khamenei is truly gone (and the fog of war makes certainty a luxury), then Iran is entering a period where the only thing guaranteed is uncertainty. Markets will try to price it. Theyâll build scenarios, assign probabilities, and hedge exposures. But the truth is messier than any model can capture.
This isnât a binary outcome. Itâs not âregime change equals opportunityâ or âinstability equals risk.â Itâs both, simultaneously, with a thousand variables nobody can see yet.
What Gets Built in the Dust
Iran has the resources. It has the people. What it hasnât had, for a very long time, is the political architecture that allows those two things to combine into something productive. Whether Reza Pahlaviâor anyone elseâcan build that architecture is the question that will define the next chapter.
Trump says operations will continue. Iranian sources are still counting bodies. And somewhere, in a quiet room far from the headlines, someone is already building the model for what comes next.
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ATOM: Atomera Incorporated â ď¸
What they do: A semiconductor materials and technology licensing company
Why watch? Atomera operates in one of the most consequential corners of the semiconductor industry right now. The companyâs core technology, called MST (Mears Silicon Technology), is a materials-level innovation that can be applied during the chip manufacturing process to improve yield, control dopant diffusion, enhance performance, and reduce variability. For non-engineers: think of it as a coating or treatment applied during chip production that makes the final product more reliable and efficient, without requiring chipmakers to redesign their entire manufacturing process.
The timing couldnât be more relevant. The semiconductor industry is pushing toward increasingly miniaturized transistor architectures, including Gate-All-Around (GAA) transistors, which are critical for the next generation of AI GPUs, CPUs, and networking chips. At these extreme scales (2 nanometers and below), manufacturing becomes extraordinarily difficult, and yield (the percentage of chips that come out of production working correctly) becomes the defining competitive variable. Atomera has established a strategic partnership with a large equipment OEM specifically to address these manufacturing challenges, a meaningful validation of the technologyâs relevance at the frontier of chip production.
The company is also making progress in DRAM and RF-SOI markets, two additional high-value segments where MSTâs diffusion-blocking capabilities could command premium licensing fees. Government-funded collaborative development programs represent another emerging opportunity, diversifying the companyâs customer pipeline beyond traditional commercial chipmakers.
Now, the elephant in the room: Samsung. The Korean giant is currently laser-focused on improving margins by concentrating on high-margin, high-yield products: server DRAM, High Bandwidth Memory (HBM), and advanced nodes. To hit 50% profit margins, Samsung must improve yield, reduce defects, and maximize performance per wafer. Atomeraâs MST technology directly addresses each of these pain points. If the technology delivers on its promises at Samsungâs scale, the licensing revenue potential would be transformative for a company of Atomeraâs size. That said, itâs important to be clear-eyed: this remains a compelling story with significant execution risk. No licensing agreement has been announced, and the company is still in the process of proving commercial adoption at scale.
The company recently closed a $25 million registered direct offering at $5.00 per share with institutional investors. This capital raise provides runway to continue development and customer engagement while the licensing pipeline matures.
Technical Outlook: After an extraordinary 200% run accompanied by the highest weekly volume in the companyâs history (over 30 million shares one week, followed by over 60 million the next, compared to a previous peak of just 13 million), the stock is now experiencing its first meaningful pullback. This is exactly the kind of consolidation you want to monitor closely. Notably, volume on the pullback has been light, suggesting sellers are not aggressively distributing shares. The $5.00 level is the critical weekly support that buyers must defend. The stock may seek the 20-day EMA rather than the 10-day as its natural resting point before the next move. A clean break above $5.50 would signal resumption of the uptrend, but patient investors can look for an earlier entry on a strong defense of $5.00âor a brief shakeout below that level followed by a swift recovery, which would be an even more constructive signal.
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