💼 Inside the Portfolio: Updates from our Swing Trading Desk

24 Mar 2025 - Insights, adjustments, and forecasts about our latest swing trades 💹

Position Updates:

• Added Aurinia Pharmaceuticals Inc. (AUPH) last week. We apologize to our subscribers for the delay in providing the detailed analysis due to unexpected personal circumstances. The complete analysis will be shared alongside details of today's new position. For this reason will be free for all subscribers.

• A new holding was added to the portfolio today*

New Positions and Subscriber Insights:

While we usually avoid initiating positions on gap-up days due to elevated risk and potential chart distortions, today we made a calculated exception to our strategy. We identified a compelling opportunity in a stock that has declined significantly by 40% over the past few months, operating in a non-hyped sector.

Our market perspective remains cautiously optimistic about the ongoing bounce, though uncertainty persists about its duration. This environment has led us to adopt a more defensive strategy, focusing on less speculative investments with better risk-adjusted potential. We believe this approach is prudent given the current market dynamics.

* real-time trade notifications dispatched to premium subscribers via our dedicated chat channel

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1. Aurinia Pharmaceuticals Inc (AUPH)

Aurinia Pharmaceuticals Inc., a commercial-stage biopharmaceutical company, focuses on developing and commercializing therapies to treat various diseases with unmet medical needs in the United States and internationally. The company offers LUPKYNIS for the treatment of adult patients with active lupus nephritis. It has a collaboration and license agreement with Otsuka Pharmaceutical Co., Ltd. The company is headquartered in Victoria, Canada.

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The company has shown significant financial performance and growth with its flagship product LUPKYNIS, the first FDA-approved oral treatment for adult lupus nephritis. The company reported a 33% revenue increase in Q4 2024, reaching $59.9 million, driven by a 36% rise in LUPKYNIS sales to $57.6 million. Operating activities generated $30.1 million in cash flow, up 110% from Q4 2023.

For the full year 2024, total revenue increased by 34% to $235.1 million and Aurinia achieved a net income of $5.8 million, reversing a loss of $78 million in 2023—highlighting effective management strategies.

As of December 31, 2024, Aurinia maintained strong cash reserves of $358.5 million and repurchased shares worth $41 million during the year.

Looking forward to 2025, Aurinia projects total revenue between $250-260 million and net product sales between $240-250 million as it continues to grow LUPKYNIS adoption.

The company also initiated a Phase 1 study for AUR200, targeting B cell activating factor (BAFF) and proliferation-inducing ligand (APRIL), with initial results expected in Q2 2025.

Recent insider buying by Kevin Tang (Tang Capital Management, LLC) indicates confidence in the company’s potential.

CEO Peter Greenleaf noted that 2025 will be pivotal for Aurinia as it focuses on expanding LUPKYNIS use while advancing its pipeline with AUR200.

In summary, Aurinia’s transition to profitability reflects its successful business strategy alongside strong sales growth and positive market sentiment—positioning it well within the specialty pharmaceutical market while delivering shareholder value.

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• Entry Point: We started a position on March 20 when the stock broke over 8.40. Great Daily and Weekly chart.
  

• Support and Resistance Levels: Support is currently established at $8.40 on the daily chart (previous resistance). The first resistance level is at $8.85 on the daily

• Additional Notes: None

Entry Day: 20 March

Price: $8.46

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