💼 Inside the Portfolio: Updates from our Swing Trading Desk

21 Oct2024 - Insights, adjustments, and forecasts about our latest swing trades 💹

The US stock market continues to face volatility, with a red day impacting investor sentiment. In response to these challenging conditions, our investment strategy remains focused on prudent portfolio management and risk adjustment. Despite the market's turbulence, we have executed several strategic moves to protect our gains and explore new opportunities.

ASTS (AST SpaceMobile Inc., Nasdaq): This morning, we closed two-thirds of our position in ASTS, with the remaining shares set to sell at a stop profit level of $26.00. We will monitor this closely to determine future actions.

ATAT (Atour Lifestyle Holdings Ltd., Nasdaq): We exited our position on the same day we provided the updated portfolio, missing a subsequent gap up the following day. The stock is currently showing strong performance and is tightening, which may present an opportunity for re-entry in the coming days.

SYM (Symbiotic Inc., Nasdaq): SYM has demonstrated remarkable resilience, maintaining its strength despite the broader market downturn. It remains the sole survivor in our portfolio, showing a favorable pullback on very low volume. We are optimistic about increasing our position in SYM in the coming days, contingent on supportive market conditions.

New Positions: Today, we added two new pilot positions. Given the current market volatility, we are cautious about increasing our portfolio's risk exposure. These positions are part of our strategy to explore potential growth opportunities while minimizing risk.

1. AST SpaceMobile, Inc. (ASTS)

AST SpaceMobile, Inc. (ASTS) is a pioneering company in the diversified telecommunication services industry, operating a space-based cellular broadband network for mobile phones. Founded in 2017 and headquartered in Midland, Texas, AST SpaceMobile aims to provide mobile broadband services for users in areas without terrestrial mobile services, including land, sea, and air travel.

Technical Analysis and Investment Rationale

Financial Performance:

Based on the latest earnings call and quarterly report, AST SpaceMobile is at a pivotal moment as it transitions from research and development to full-scale production and commercialization of its space-based cellular broadband network. Key points include:

1. Technology and Commercialization:

   • AST SpaceMobile has proven its technology and built a commercial ecosystem.

   • The company is ramping up production of its advanced Block 2 satellites, which are expected to provide a 10-fold improvement in processing bandwidth compared to the initial Block 1 satellites.

   • The first 5 commercial satellites are on target for launch in the first half of September 2024, with FCC approval and strategic investments from Verizon and AT&T.

2. Strategic Partnerships and Financing:

   • AST SpaceMobile has secured major strategic financing and commercial partnerships with companies like Verizon, AT&T, and Vodafone, validating its technology and business model.

   • The company is working on developing a financing package from export credit agencies to secure cost-effective long-term debt funding for its large projects.

3. Cost Optimization:

   • AST SpaceMobile expects a reduction in its adjusted operating expenses and capital expenditures in future periods as it completes the development and production of its satellite designs and ASIC chips.

Analyst Estimates

• Revenue Estimates:

  • 2024: $6.42M

  • 2025: $73.54M

  • 2026: $393.16M

• EPS Estimates:

  • 2024: -$1

  • 2025: -$0.74

  • 2026: -$0.18

Technical Analysis:

From a technical standpoint, AST SpaceMobile Inc. (ASTS) has demonstrated a bullish breakout from a descending triangle pattern, a key technical indicator suggesting potential upward momentum. This breakout occurred after the stock tested the weekly support level at $21.68 twice, reinforcing its strength.

The alignment of all moving averages beneath the current price action further supports the bullish outlook for ASTS, indicating a strong foundation for potential gains. Additionally, recent trading sessions have seen low volume, often preceding significant price movements.
With these technical indicators aligning, ASTS appears poised for a new upward leg, making it a compelling consideration for growth-focused portfolios.

Entry Day: 16 October

Price: $25.81